RBI did the right thing by not reducing the rates but so much expectation was built in so we had a 100 points collapse in NF in 10 mins, Also i did mention is last analysis do not take position in Opening trades as pressure will come from people holding longs. Still the trend is bullish till we are closing above our rollover range of 5013. Fitch has downgraded India rating to negative from stable such news provide an opportunity for Longs to be taken in DIPS, The 61happened on last Thursday 14 June Nifty cracked to 5054 and next day closed at 5139 so such news are excuse for Bulls to book profit and enter again at lower levels.
1. FII bought 6616 Contracts of NF ,worth 189 cores.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 88 points and OI has increased by 32790 contracts means FII have booked profit in longs in Index futures.
3. Nifty made a high of 5189 just Short of our Buy above level of 5195 as was give today before market opened which again show the technical supremacy of trading system against the news based trading, Till 4980 is not broken Bulls have upper hand. RBI decision has taken the weak hands out of system and after a rise from 4770 we has one such big falls so tomorrow once it start trading above 5098 Bulls will be back.
4. As 50 and 200 DMA at crucial juncture and we can see the formation of Death Cross if nifty starts trading below 5072.Today also the Death Cross is not confirmed as still 50 DMA and 200 DMA are in sync not much difference is observed.
5. Nifty June OI is at 1.65 cores with a fresh addition of 2.5 lakhs in OI, longs were added in dips or was it shorts entery we need further confirmation over this , My guess Bears have shorted the index in anticipation of further fall.
6. Total F&O turnover was 1.91 lakh Cores with total contract traded at 4.5 lakh highest in June series.Cash volumes were same as friday so no major delivery based selling seen which further suggest fall was technical in nature.
7. 5000 and 5100 CE of June saw an addition of 3.6 and 0.61 lakh as we broke below 5125 ,5200 and 5300 CE has seen massive writing of 7 lakhs as premium got reduced by almost 70 % from 145 to 45 and 87 to 17. This can also be attributed to collapse in VIX by 10%. Ceiling has increased to 5200 on Higher end.
8. On Put side 4800 PE is having highest OI of 85 lakhs making 4800 a strong base,4700 PE has added almost 10 lakhs in OI so smart money is now writing puts at lower end as there is only 8 days left for expiry
9.FII bought 412 cores and DII sold 63 cores in cash segment. INR closed at 56.05 Live INR rate @ http://inrliverate.blogspot.in/)
10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 4935, Trend Changer at 4998 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
Buy above 5072 Tgt 5098,5115,5132 and 5155
Sell below 5042 Tgt 5015,4985 and 4950 (Nifty Spot Levels)
Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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