FII FnO Analysis for 17 May trade in Nifty Future

By | May 16, 2012

FII FnO Analysis for 17 May trade in Nifty Future

Nifty continued with its free fall as per our analysis,but many traders have stuck with longs at higher levels and question in everyone mind is when will the reversal come.Can it come at 4800 or 4500 etc. If you want to be profitable trader you need to get above such thought process,You need to develop a system and follow the system with discipline.Ignoring the noises around you. Having “Faith and Trust” in yourself and your system only can help you in the journey of becoming a profitable trader.

So Stop searching for Top and Bottom,coz they will comes only once in a while but concentrate more on “How will you trade the moves“.

1. FII  sold 34739  Contracts of NF worth 756 cores OI increased by 31363.

2. As Nifty Futures was down  by 85  points and OI has increased  by 31363 , which signify more shorts have entered the system.

3.Nifty closed below 4900 which is at 4 months low with INR making a Life time high of 54.62. Rise in INR increases our Current account deficit which is bad for our economy. 78.6% Fibo Retracement from 4531-5630 comes at 4795 so a close below this will be bearish and till 4800 is protected we can see relief rallies.Gap Exists at 4882-4943.

4.Going by our 80-100 points relief rally concept(New Readers can click here to learn about it) today low was 4837-4882 so we had a rally of 44 points so till 4943 is not breached any rally should be used to short the Index.

5. Nifty  May  OI has increased by 3  Lakhs .Total OI stands at 2.08 cores.Shorts entered the system

6. Total F&O turnover was 1.23 Lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 3.5 lakh.

7. 5200 CE saw unwinding  of 2.8 lakhs in OI,total OI now stands at 74  Lakhs making it the higher end of May Series.Profit Booking was visible as premium has reduced to rs 5. Now 5200 looks a strong resistance for May series.  4900-5300 CE added 23 lakhs in OI which means bears are back with a bang. 4900 CE added 15 lakh in OI which means for bulls closing above 4900 also looks difficult.

8. On Put side 4800 PE is having highest OI of 64 lakhs with unwinding of 7.2 lakhs,so even though we closed above 4800, we saw an unwinding and 10 lakh addition in 4700 PE. So Bulls are not sure of defending 4800 and making base at 4700.

9.FII  sold  546  cores and DII bought 171 cores in cash segment.

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 4627, Trend Changer at 5061 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).If you see Trend Deciding level is down by almost 30 points which means FII have added more shorts in system.

Buy above 4860 Tgt 4883, 4904 and 4943

Sell below 4837 Tgt 4814,4785 and 4741 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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