FII Derivatives Analysis for 24 May Trade

By | May 23, 2012

Today we had the Steepest rise in Petrol Prices Rs 7.50,Quantum of Hike will lead to inflation as price of essential goods will rise and whole brunt will be borne by Common Man!!. For Stock Market Perceptive its negative for Auto Stocks, Bank Stocks (as Further rate hikes will not be done) ,Infra Stocks and positive for OMC BPCL,HPCL and IOC.

Global Screen is looking scary with S&P coming closer to its 200 DMA@1279. Always remember Oversold and get more Oversold so do not Buy just because Market is oversold it will harm your financial wealth and peace of mind.

 

1. FII  sold 33591 Contracts of Index Futures worth 812  cores OI increased by 8427.

2. As Nifty Futures was down  by 26  points with  OI increased  by 8427 , Shorts have entered the system.

3. INR closed at new low of 56.08 (http://usdinrlive.blogspot.in/) Click on link to see Real time rate for INR, with fuel price hike INR can see some strength tomorrow.Till Nifty does not break 4788-67 on closing basis choppy markets will continue.

4. EUR USD is trading at 22 Months low below 1.26 INR at life time highs, NIfty at 4 months low can it get worse. Till Nifty do not close above 4960 Bears will have upper hand,As expiry is coming near bears would like to keep nifty below 4960 so that new lows can be formed by month end as market will fall on its own weight.

5. Nifty  May  OI has decreased by 5  Lakhs .Total OI stands at 2.04 cores.Shorts were covered  by HNI and Retail traders as Nifty was not breaking 4788 but FII did created heavy shorts ,Were they aware of such steep fuel price hike?

6. Total F&O turnover was 1.36 lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 3.5 lakh.

7. 5000 CE  is having highest OI,total OI now stands at 71.2  Lakhs making it the higher end of May Series. Now 5000 looks a strong resistance for May series

8. On Put side 4700 PE is having highest OI of 91 lakhs .4700 a strong base. Now today 4900 PE added 14 lakhs in OI which means BUlls are confident of saving 4700 ,Looking at FII Avg Put buying price at 4612 i am assuming it was smart money who bought 4700 PE ,So we can see a good correction tomorrow if my assumption is correct on FII buying 4700 PE.

9.FII  sold  361 cores and DII bought 168 cores in cash segment.

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 45823, Trend Changer at 5005 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).

Buy above 4840Tgt 4858,4880 and 4911

Sell below 4788 Tgt 4767,4751 and 4720 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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