FII Derivatives Analysis for 25 May Trade

By | May 24, 2012

 

Bulls gave a Knockout punch today to bears and in one instance closed above 4900 . Does it change the trend.

My analysis show till its below 4960 Bears still have upper hand,Bear market rallies are sharp furious and short lived. Above 4960 Bulls will get upper hand . Expiry is 5 days away and till now as we have discussed we can see a move 4700-5000 till expiry and tomorrow being a Weekly closing  Bulls needs to close nifty above 4918 else this upmove will also flatter.

1. FII  sold 26556  Contracts of Index Futures worth 660 cores OI increased by 18648.

2. As Nifty Futures was up  by 98  points with  OI increased  by18648 , Short were covered by FII.

3. INR closed at new low of 55.70 (http://usdinrlive.blogspot.in/) So at last Fall in USD after 7 days of strength.

4.Nifty is still not out of woods and till the range of 4788-4957 is not broken expect range bound markets, Tomorrow will be the real test of rallies Will we be able to do a weekly close above 4957? Bulls have one thing to cherish formation of Morning Star candlestick pattern which is considered to be a reversal signal.

5. Nifty  May  OI has decreased by 12  Lakhs .Total OI stands at 1.92 cores.Shorts were covered  by HNI and Retail traders.

6. Total F&O turnover was 1.66 lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 4.44 lakh.Highest in May series.

7. 5100 CE  is having highest OI,total OI now stands at 67  Lakhs making it the higher end of May Series. 5000 CE has seen an unwinding of 4.5 lakhs as nervous and weak bears unwinded there positions.Still  5000 looks a strong resistance for May series

8. On Put side 4700 PE is having highest OI of 94 lakhs making 4700 a strong base. 4800 PE saw an addition of  11 lakhs in OI.

9.FII  sold  105 cores and DII bought 130 cores in cash segment.FII are still net sellers in cash segments and which means rally was backed by short covering only.

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 4689, Trend Changer at 4998 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).

Buy above 4957 Tgt 4980,4996 and 5020

Sell below 4893 Tgt 4868,4857 and 4830 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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