FII Derivatives Analysis for 21May Trade

By | May 21, 2012

FII FnO Analysis for 21 May trade in Nifty Future

As we have discussed in Last Thursday (Click on Link to see ) post Nifty looks ripe for Bounce and fresh shorting should not be done,Nifty obliged us with opening gap down and showing a quick recovery and rallied to almost 122 points. Hope traders make good money on Friday.

1. FII  sold 297  Contracts of Index Futures worth 20 cores OI decreased by 22009.

2. As Nifty Futures was up  by 34  points and 122 points from days low with  OI decreased  by 22009 , which signify shorts were covered by FII.Still no signs of long addition so till now it is just a technical bounce.

3. 78.6% Fibo Retracement from 4531-5630 comes at 4767 and Nifty Spot made a low of 4788 and bounced back.Till 78.6% is protected and we are closing above 4800 Bulls have got power to move nifty till 200 DMA once 4960 is crossed.

4.Going by our 80-100 points relief rally concept(New Readers can click here to learn about it) today low was 4767-4908 so we had a rally of 141 points so it seems the corrective down move is over for time being and Bulls have upperhand.

5. Nifty  May  OI has decreased by 7.2  Lakhs .Total OI stands at 2.07 cores.Shorts were covered

6. Total F&O turnover was 1.55 Lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 4 lakh.On Friday we had the highest turnover and highest number of contracts were traded but cash segments volumes were just normal at 5896 cores which also signify it was just short covering rally and no delivery based buying has occurred on Friday. So we can see a relief rally till 4960 or 4085 and than again start a fresh dowmmove till 4600 in later part of series. This is one of scenario i am assuming can happen,not a trade recommendation. Trading is always done on levels.

7. 5200 CE saw unwinding  of 30K in OI,total OI now stands at 71.9  Lakhs making it the higher end of May Series.  4800-5300 CE added 3.7 lakhs in OI which means bears are going slow and smart money is booking profit. 500 CE added 5 lakh in OI which means for bulls closing above 500 also looks difficult. Now 5000 looks a strong resistance for May series

8. On Put side 4700 PE is having highest OI of 70 lakhs ,total OI now stands at 70 Lakhs highest in May Series.4700 a strong base. So we can see a move of 4700-5000 for next few days.

9.FII  sold  249 cores and DII bought 149 cores in cash segment.

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 4661.3, Trend Changer at 5033 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).Now the Trend Deciding level is almost same as tomorrow which also signify not much shorts have entered in Nifty Future.

 

Buy above 4908 Tgt 4935, 4960 and 4976

Sell below 4862 Tgt 4845,4817 and 4788 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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