Last Week Analysis as we discussed the First Week of new financial year do end up on positive note and Nifty did follow the history to close with a minor gain of 0.5%.Next Week we have the Q4 results pouring into starting with Infosys on 13 April with RBI Credit Policy on 17 April as the most important trigger for next 2 weeks.
In Continuation with the trend I came out with one more Study how Nifty trades in the April Month.Results were quiet fascinating and are summarized as below
Time Period:30-Apr-00 to 30-Apr-11
Max Gain :17.46% 31-Apr-2009
Max Loss :6.87% 30-Mar-2000
Average Gain :1.62%
So Out of 11 Years 6 year was negative rest 5 years ended in positive.Another interesting aspect the From 2006-2010 Nifty ended April on Positive note and from year 2000-2004 ended on negative note. As 2011 was negative so we have 50-50% chances of April ending on Positive note. 5178 Nifty Spot holds the key for April
On Hourly charts Nifty is overbought and closed below an Important support of 5344 which is marked in Green Line in above chart.
Gap Exists on Both Upside and downside.
One of this gap will get filled in coming week,Guess is yours 😉
20 and 50 SMA are playing a crucial role in deciding the nifty trend. As Monday markets are bound to open Gap down looking at Weak NFP data from US. 20 SMA@5300 and 50 SMA@5330 needs to be watched closely. Close above 5300 will be bullish for market for coming week.
Nifty has been stuck in the rangebound move from 5180-5445. After a Big rise in Jan-Feb and looking at strong headwinds from both macro and Political side best case for Nifty is to consolidate above 200 SMA and make base for higher move once 5630 gets broken. Base formation and time wise consolidation are good for markets, so do not expect market to fall in hurry till 5130 is not broken on closing basis and do not expect market to run in a hurry till 5445 is not broken.
As discussed in previous analysis 5361 at 61.8% Golden ratio will provide an opportunity for short sellers to bring nifty down. They have till now be able to push nifty down. 5275 levels should be used to book partial profits in shorts.
It has been 5 Weeks Nifty has not been able to make a move of more than 1% WoW basis which shows the big fight happening between bulls and bears. As this will be the 6 Week i expect some fireworks on Weekly basis ie. WoW nifty closing above or below in excess of 1%.
On Weekly charts consolidation is going on above the Flag and Ploe pattern.More consolidation and time Nifty spends above the Flag upper boundary more bullish the pattern becomes. Also Note that On Declining weeks Volumes is low as compared to rising weeks.
Nifty Trend Deciding Level:5278
Nifty Resistance:5320,5378,5400,5445,5463 and 5500
Nifty Support :5241,5201 and 5178
Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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