FII FnO Analysis for April Expiry

By | April 25, 2012

1. FII  sold 13686  Contracts of NF worth 314 cores OI also increased by 77488.

2. As Nifty Futures was down  by 26 points and OI has increased  by 77488 , ieFall in Price with Rise in Open Interest,Fresh shorts were added by FII.

Today we saw an huge increase in OI and with S&P coming with a negative outlook on Indian Sovereign and Downgrading the 3 IT top boys Infy,TCS and Wipro and also downgraded  11 financial institutions:
Axis Bank Ltd. (BBB-/Negative/A-3) Bank of India (BBB-/Negative/A-3) HDFC Bank Ltd. (BBB-/Negative/A-3) ICICI Bank Ltd. (foreign currency: BBB-/Negative/A-3) IDBI Bank Ltd. (foreign currency: BBB-/Negative/A-3) Indian Overseas Bank (BBB-/Negative/A-3) Indian Bank (BBB-/Negative/A-3) Infrastructure Development Finance Company Ltd. (BBB-/Negative/A-3) State Bank of India (BBB-/Negative/A-3) Syndicate Bank (BBB-/Negative/A-3) Union Bank of India (BBB-/Negative/A-3) The outlook revision follows a similar action on the sovereign credit rating on India (BBB-/Negative/A-3) (see “Outlook On India Revised To Negative On Slow Fiscal Progress, Deteriorating Economic Indicators; ‘BBB-‘ Rating Affirmed,” published April 25, 2012, on RatingsDirect on the Global Credit

so the above has provided trigger to FII to enter in Huge Shorts in Index Futures.

3. From the start of April Series i was of View this series will just be an consolidation series after volatile march and Range we came to was 5221-5380 NF. Most part of series Nifty  has traded in the above mentioned range. 29 March Nifty closed at 5178 and Today it closed at 5202 so just 24 points moves in April till date. Bulls were able to save the grace with a close abvoe 5200. But such huge increase in OI should not be ignored.

4.As mentioned yesterday Close below 5178 will spell trouble for bulls and Nifty again made a low of 5161 and bounced back. Nifty 200 DMA@5135 will be the strong support and below its last support comes at 5077.

5. Nifty April   OI has decreased   by 27  Lakhs .Total OI stands at 1 cores.Shorts were getting rollovered in May series OI as increased by 51  lakhs so we have a rollover of 27  lakhs from April to May series and also an addition of 24 laksh..Range for Rollover 5187-5273

6. Total F&O turnover was  1.98 lakhs  Cores  with total contract traded at 4.3 lakh .We are going to see a directional move in May series so get ready for a trending move.

7. 5400 CE saw an unwinding    of  2.8 lakhs in OI,total OI now stands at 67.5 Lakhs making it the higher end of April Series.Expiry should be below 5300 now we need to see will be able to close above 5200 or not.5200 CE is having premium of 25 and OI at 39 lakhs so this will be in focus tommrow as Operators can move Nifty is a small range to eat the premium of 5200 CE.

8. On Put side 5000 PE is having highest OI of 69 lakhs  .5200 Base again got sealed with Nifty closing above 5200 but today we saw an unwinding of 12 lakhs. Also Highest OI at 5000 seems bulls are not confident of holding 5200 as base.

9.FII  sold 340 cores  and DII also bought 40 cores in cash segment.

10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5063, Trend Changer at 5281 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).Till NS trades above 5178 its Bulls which are having upper hand. Today we formed double bottom and 5161 and this should be SL for all Longs. Longs can be attempted in range of 5135-5150 levels with a SL of 20 points. Last hour will show volatile move in the expiry so trade in less quantity.

Upper Range of Expiry:5253

Lower Range of Expiry:5150

Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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