Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 20-Apr-12.
1. FII sold 5957 Contracts of NF worth 102.69 cores OI also increased marginally by 3397.
2. As Nifty Futures made a dramatic low of 5000 with a fall of 300 points in 2.5 minutes by the Algo trading hitch by CLSA and recovery equally faster, by closing was down by 54 points and OI has increased by 3397, ie.Fall in Price with Rise in Open Interest,Fresh shorts were added by FII.
3. Nifty closed above 20SMA@5262 first sign of strength but unable to close above 50 SMA@5337 . Above 50 SMA Bulls rule and trend becomes stronger. On Friday we made 3 attempt to close above 50 SMA but unable to cross and close above it. Till Nifty is closing above 20 SMA dips near 5262 should be bought into.
4. Its been 14 trading session in April Series and Trading range of 5380-5221 is still active on closing basis. NF made a high of 5353 and turned back so range is still active.
5. Nifty April OI has decreased by 10 Lakhs .Total OI stands at 1.81 cores.Longs were liquidated with fresh shorts must be added in panic mode. Here i would like to add Nifty has moved from 61.8% retracement from 5184-5342 and Closed on a positive note on weekly and Monthly time frame which6 make the case of Buy on Dips instead selling on rise.
6. Total F&O turnover was 1.44 lakhs Cores with total contract traded at 3.4 lakh .
7. 5400 CE saw an unwinding of 3.76 lakhs in OI,total OI now stands at 66 Lakhs making it the higher end of April Series.5100-5300 CE saw an unwinding of 6 lakh in OI.No Unwinding of 5400 CE is a good sign for Bulls.5400-5700 CE together saw an unwinding of 10 lakhs in OI.
8. On Put side 5200 PE is having highest OI of 69 lakhs with unwinding of 8.79 .5200 is current strong base for Nifty. 5300-5500 PE saw an unwinding of 19 lakhs in OI. So we have unwinding happening in Both Calls and Puts before the expiry week. Also FII OI in Options has has increased by 29K, So its giving me hint some decisive move might be coming in the coming week.
9.FII bought 314 cores and DII also bought 134 cores in cash segment. So its the Retail traders which exited in panic.
10. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5250, Trend Changer at 5293NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upper hand).
Buy above 5291 Tgt 5315, 5344 and 5385
Sell below 5266 Tgt 5245,5230 and 5201(Nifty Spot Levels)
Disclaimer: These are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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