FII FnO Data Analysis for the Budget Day

By | March 16, 2012

Today is an all important event from a Stock Market perspective, Annual Budget 2012 will be presented today by Mr. Pranab Mukurjee.

Financial Markets will like Budget to be more of fiscal consolidation ie. Controlling the ballooned Subsidies on Diesel,Petrol and Fertilizers etc.

A Pragmatic Budget which paves way for growth by controlling the expenses and getting more revenues is the need of Hour. Will FM oblige us?

From Traders perceptive what matter is to be on right side of market.

Last Budget which was on 28 Feb and Nifty made a High of 5477 and low of 5308. So wild Swings expected today. Trade with caution with strict Sl

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 14-Mar-12.

1. FII  sold  18841  Contracts of NF worth 503 cores OI also increasing  by 40259 contracts.

2. As Nifty Futures was down by 87  points and OI has increased by 40259  contracts means  institutions have shorted NF before the Annual Budget.Institutions are entering the Budget day with negative bias

3.Today we were able to fill the gap from 5360-5390 Low made by Nifty was 5362. Next gap which is remaining is between 5360-5333.

5333 NS remains a very crucial levels to watch out for today’s trading .

4. Nifty today closed below 20SMA@5395, Close below this is first indication of a bearish market from short term perceptive. To continue with the current upmove Nifty should close above 5400 today.

5. Importance of  Golden Ratio 61.8%  Yesterday we discussed close above Golden Ratio is bullish. Today high of Nifty was 5456. Fibo Traders were active in  shorting the index from morning as it was unable to cross 5454.

 

6. Nifty March  OI has increased   by 6  lakh .Total OI stands at 2.63 cores  contracts.In 2 days we have seen a addition of 12 lakhs and Nifty OI is highest in the series.I am assuming both days additions to be shorts Reason:NF has reacted from 29 Feb High 5515,14 Mar High 5542 and Yesterdays High 5508 basically 5508-5542 levels have been used to short the index. Such High OI before the Budget basically means downside will be limited in case of Bad budget as OI is already high but as such if we have a good budget which market likes we are in for a fast and furious rally. Shorts will run for cover.

7. Another Intresting aspect bank Nifty had a fall of 344 points yesterday but net OI got reduced by only 8075 basically profit booking on shorts with no fresh short addition.

8.Total F&O turnover was  1.24  Lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 384522 .

9. In equity FII bought  156 cores DII sold   389 cores.

10. 5600 CE is having highest OI of  61.5  Lakhs with 5.5 Lakh fresh addition.  5200 PE having highest OI of 85  lakhs with unwinding  of  4.65 lakhs. 5200 seems to be a firm base.

11. Speculative activity had started in OTM options with 10 Lakh addition in 5700 and 6000 CE premium being Rs 21 and Rs 3. Will request readers not to bet huge amount on such Calls as if it go haywire you will lose your whole capital which you have betted  in such Options

12. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5403, Trend Changer at 5389 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upperhand).

 

 Buy above 5387 Tgt 5401,5434,5452 and 5483

 Sell below 5360 Tgt 5330,5292,5275,5256 and  5220 (Nifty Spot Levels)

 

Let me go by Disclaimer these are my persnal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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One thought on “FII FnO Data Analysis for the Budget Day

  1. jonak

    as usual…very nice and thanks….Point 6 and 7 will give relief to BULLs….

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