Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 05-Mar-12.
Tomorrow we will have the UP election results which will be watched quiet closely by Nifty for further triggers. Lets discuss few probable outcomes and thier impact on markets.
We have 4 Major Parties :SP,Congress,BJP and BSP . I have assumed the best,worst and normal scenarios
1.S.P with clear majority Nifty should rally, with mild positive bias and Global triggers will take its effect Positive for Sugar and ADAG companies.
2.BSP with clear majority Nifty should rally with mild positive bias and Global triggers will take its effect Positive for JP group of companies
3.Congress is King maker with increase in Seats Nifty will take in extremely positive and pre budget rally will follow till 5500
1. FII bought 4943 Contracts of NF worth 132.49 cores OI also increasing by 3922 contracts.
2. As Nifty Futures was down by 77 points and OI has decreased by 3922 contracts means profit booking on shorts which were created on friday,Also we are seeing Profit Booking in carry over Longs from previous series as SAR level is coming down.
3. Nifty has for fifth day closed below 20 SMA@5422 which shows lack of strength of Bulls to drive Nifty above 20 SMA.Below 20 SMA first sign market is turning bearish. We have been writing this from 5 days and everyday nifty is drifting down, For investor good opportunity to accumulate large caps at less prices.
4. On daily charts nifty made a new swing low of 5265 and forming a descending triangle. Descending triangles are bearish in nature and any fall below 5265 can lead to a fall till 200 DMA@5166.Also Volumes are lowest on such a falling day implying strong hands are still holding to longs. Any Bad news or worst case scenario will lead to a panic fall in nifty.
Target as per Descending triangle = 5265-(5630-5365) =4900
5. Nifty March OI has decreased by 2.17 lakh .Total OI stands at 2.47 cores contracts. Profit Booking in shorts.
6.Total F&O turnover was 86K Cores lowest in the series with total contract traded in March series 291518 .Turnover is lowest in series meaning Bears are not aggressively shorting the index.
7. In equity FII bought 125 cores DII sold 283 cores.
8. 5600 CE is having highest OI of 48 Lakhs seems with fresh addition of 4.5 Lakh contracts 5200 PE having highest OI of 84 lakhs with fresh addition of 10 lakhs.
9. 5000-5400 PE saw an addition of of 35 Lakh contract, Puts are still getting written. Also 5100-6000 CE added 35 lakhs in OI.
10. Nifty fell 78 points but both CE and PE added in net OI,What could be the reason Answer lies in VIX which is now trading at 29. VIX is basically added to more premium and Options writers use this oppurtunity to write both calls and puts as a slight decrease in VIX will lead to massive erosion premium in Options.
11. FII SAR for Today 5287 NF March((For Positional Traders) and VWAP at 5376 NF (Below this Level Bears will rule Nifty).
Buy above 5310 Tgt 5328,5341,5375 and 5400
Sell below 5265 Tgt 5249,5218,5196 and 5166 (Levels mentioned are Nifty Spot)
Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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