Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 01-Mar-12.
1. FII sold 13465 Contracts of NF worth 351.60 cores OI also decreasing by 13253 contracts.
2. As Nifty Futures was down by 49 points and OI has decreased by 13253 contracts means profit booking on shorts which were created yesterday,Also we are seeing Profit Booking in carry over Longs from previous series as SAR level is coming down.
3. Nifty has for third day closed below 20 SMA@5414 which shows lack of strength of Bulls to drive Nifty above 20 SMA.Below 20 SMA first sign market is turning bearish.
Nifty ended with a loss of 45 points but did not breach the support level of 5300. In the immediate term the level of 5300 continues to remain as a support for Nifty. Only a breach of 5300 may drag it down till the recent swing low of 5268 and below that there may be further sell off till 5190 which is 200 DMA.On upside close above 20 SMA can propel Nifty back to 5455 and 5500 in near term.
4. Nifty March OI has decreased by 4.57 lakh .Total OI stands at 2.55 cores contracts. Profit Booking in shorts.
5.Total F&O turnover was 97K Cores again lower than yesterday 1 Lakh cores with total contract traded in March series 347633 .Turnover is less than yesterdays turnover meaning Bears are not aggressively shorting the index.
6. In equity FII for first time after many days sold 126 cores DII sold 10 cores.
7. 5600 CE is having highest OI of 44 Lakhs seems with fresh addition of 1.7 Lakh contracts 5200 PE having highest OI of 74 lakhs with minor unwinding of 1.6 lakhs.IV of both CE and PE is between 25-30 levels which are quiet high which implies some cooling off is required,Hence we can have a one sided move in coming days to cool down the IV.
8. 5400 PE saw an unwinding of of 1.7 Lakh contract as NF closed at 5390 with still whopping 60 points premium.
9. Next Trigger for Market are UP election results and Pre Budget rally.
10. FII SAR for Today 5358 NF March((For Positional Traders) and VWAP at 5428 NF (Below this Level Bears will rule Nifty).
11. FII Options OI is at 15 lakh the reason for ranged trading market. Trading Nifty in a range and eating the premium is the game with such high OI.
Buy above 5358 Tgt 5372,5400,5414 and 5437
Sell below 5326 Tgt 5298,5268 and 5244 (Levels mentioned are Nifty Spot)
Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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