FII Derivative Data Analysis for end of 1 Quarter 2012

By | March 30, 2012

 

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 29-Mar-12.

1. FII  sold 21560  Contracts of NF worth 540 cores OI also decreasing  by 412195  contracts.As it was March Future Expiry thats why we are seeing such huge reduction in OI.

2. As Nifty Futures was down  by 20 points and OI has decreased by 412195  contracts means  institutions have exited mostly out of   shorts in NF as net OI has decreased with fall in price.

3. Nifty  for the 4  day was unable to move above 50 SMA@5306. Again saving grace comes that Bulls are protecting 200 SMA@5150 Till Nifty is trading above this level bulls still have a chance for Pullback.Bulls made a good attempt today to defend 5150 area.

4. Channel bottom comes at 5120 So 5120 should not be broken on EOD basis.


5. Nifty April  OI has increased   by 43  lakh .Total OI stands at 2 cores  contracts. 10 Lakh Short were rollovered in NF from march

6.April NF OI is 2.03 cores . 28 lakh fresh shorts were added in April Series . Yesterday we told to keep an eye of 5221 on April NF and low was protected on eod basis as NF closed at 5232

7. Almost 1.43 core NF got added in range of 5185-5370 range and we are assuming mostly these are shorts so 5185-5370 becomes the range breakout. Fresh short below 5185 and Longs above 5370 NF only for quick fast move.

8.Total F&O turnover was  2.50  Lakh  Cores  with total contract traded at 448939.

9. In equity FII sold 1333 cores,Huge selling by FII till clarity emerges on  GAAR issue, one more thing to note is FII has sold big quantity in cash but nifty was down just 20 points signifying enough demand exists at lower levels and  DII  bought 300 cores.

10. 5400 CE is having highest OI of  32  Lakhs with fresh addition of 10 lakhs. 5400 looks like upper end of ceiling for April.

11. 5000 PE having highest OI of 57  lakhs .  5000 looks like base for the series.

12. FII Average traded price in futures comes at 5011 which basically means they did lot of day trading today also they have carried longs for today.

13. Today is Weekly,Monthly and Quarterly closing and one number which needs to be watched closely is 5217 NS. Bulls to continue the uptrend for rest of year should protect this level of 5217 NS on closing basis.

15. Nifty Futures Trend Deciding level is 5209, Trend Changer at 5215 NF (Above this Level Bulls will rule Nifty/Below this levels Bears have upperhand).

Buy above 5195 Tgt 5214,5228 and 5256

Sell below 5170 Tgt 5145,5120 and 5080 (Nifty Spot Price)

Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

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