Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 17-Feb-12.
1. FII bought 28412 Contracts of NF worth 800.41 cores OI also increasing by 7890 contracts. The OI for FII is inclusive of all months, so it rules out rollover.
2. As Nifty Futures was down by 51 points and OI has increased by 7890 contracts means longs were added by FII,Our Thursday Analysis of shorting the index at higher level proved right as Today they bought 28412 contracts but OI rose by only 7890 contracts.
3. Nifty has been rising only on gaps with momentum money chasing prices. If you are not on long side please do not short this market looking at daily rise of the market. Nifty is showing irrational exuberance with FII buying at Equities worth 4.44 Billion Dollars in just 44 days.
4. Nifty OI has decreased by 17 lakh .Total OI stands at 2.22 cores contracts.Rollover have started and 17 Lakh got rollovered to March series and 3 Lakh new long position got added.
5.Total F&O turnover was 1.80 Lakh cores,Highest in Feb Series and that to on a day we got sold off from highs and formed a DOJI pattern ,Is it distribution which happened by professional traders?
6. In equity FII bought 536.49 cores DII sold 223.07 cores.FII has reduced there buying spree at such elevated levels.
7. FII Nifty Options has highest OI in Feb series at 17 lakhs changing by 98k.FII has bought Options worth 1392 cores,21 Lakhs PE were covered and 31 Lakhs calls were sold on Friday. Such a big OI suggests FII playing for Long Weekend decay.
8. 5600 CE is having highest OI of 57 Lakhs as expiry is just 3 days away still no Call Option OI above 80 lakhs shows the fear in Call Writers, 5300 and 5400 PE is having the highest OI 64 Lakhs. 5300 looks like a firm base.
9 . As we had Long Weekend ahead Monday being an Holiday 5600 PE saw an addition of 27 Lakhs with a premium of 44 which we are assuming now as shorting as Bulls are looking for one more gap up. Time Value of Options will reduce. FII ggenerally eat premium of Options above 40. They might have shorted to hedge there longs in the series in case we had a gap down. If nifty opens at same level time decay will reduce the premium So win win Situation for 5600 PE sellers.
10. 5800 and 5900 CE has seen an addition of 23 Lakhs with Premium being 1 and 2 rs now this is pure speculation before expiry someone is betting Nifty to cross 5800. Call and Put Writing below 10 rs in last 3 days of series is not a smart thinking.
11. FII SAR for Tuesday 5581 NF((For Positional Traders) and VWAP at5359 NF (Below this Level Bears will attack Nifty).
Buy above 5581 Tgt 5606,5630,5660
Sell below 5545 Tgt 5522,5497 and 5475 Intra day Players can use the Levels.
All levels mentioned are SPOT levels.
For Investor i would suggest lighten your long commitments towards market. I said the same around 5400 levels and i will always suggest to keep booking profits.
Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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