Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Expiry Week

By | January 22, 2012

2012 started with a bearish noises all around and traders shorting stocks index on every rise. Investors were not deploying cash thinking of getting stocks at more lower levels. But market always move against the mass psychology and its Proved TRUE yes again. 

Nifty is up 9.2% in January 2012 Till date.In fact, this is best performance in January Month in last 10 years :). The rise is driven by FII Funds Flows and anticipation of RBI easing rates after monetary tightening cycles of past 2 years . RBI meet is on 24 Jan

Lets move to Technical of Nifty for coming Week. Last week we discussed Nifty not breaking 4804 is bound to move up and same happened this week with Nifty moving up by 3.8%.

Nifty Hourly Chart

 

On Hourly charts shown above i have pointed all the 4 Gaps which have been left unfulfilled from the rise of 4640-5064 on Nifty Spot. For a healthy rising markets such gaps needs to be filled as it can be considered as VOID left in a newly constructed building. Gaps will get filled in next downleg of Nifty

1 Gap :4641-4676

2 Gap:4744-4772

3 Gap:4879-4905

4 Gap:4947-4991

 

Keep watch on above levels as Gap provides an excellent trading opportunities.

Trendline on Hourly chart

 

On Hourly charts breakdown will start below 4947 as per above trendline drawn

Nifty Daily Chart

On Daily charts we can see the negative divergence with RSI making lower lows but Price is making higher highs. Indicators can remain overbought for extended period of time but divergence should never be ignored, Now we need a price confirmation of negative divergence with price going down below 4995 to show meaningful correction.

 

Rising Wedge has been spotted on daily charts.Rising Wedge are bearish in nature and again we need a confirmation with price breaking below 4995 on closing basis. Till than the trend will remain bullsih

Nifty Golden Ratio 61.8% Fibo Ratio

Fibonacci Retracement from high of 5400 and Low of 4532 is drawn in above chart.61.8% retracement  comes at 5067. Nifty spot high is at 5064 on friday. Look at Volume bar on Friday. Volumes are way above average so it signify 2 things.

1. Short covering by Bears who were short from lower levels of 4780-4830 and there SL got triggered with close above 5040.

2. Fibo Traders got active and sold in huge amount around 5067 levels keeping a SL of 5100.

I am considering Friday Volume as per VSA thoery  HIGH VOLUME NARROW SPREAD UP BAR Smart money selling and signs of distribution at higher levels, Monday price action will confirm the trend.

 

Nifty Weekly Chart

On Weekly charts Nifty support lies at 4827 now . Nifty is approaching cluster of resistance zone between 5100-5170.

Always remmber Higher Time frame will gain importance in a trending market so for example Nifty is Overbought in Hourly and Daily charts But look at weekly charts the trend is up and Weekly Stoch is in middle zone.So Nifty can still manage to go up till weekly trend is up.

Why am Highlighting the time frame concept as many traders short nifty blindly looking at overbought on Daily and Hourly charts and end up being in loss.

Nifty Monthly Chart

 

On Montly chart next major resistance comes at 5100 which was Dec Month High.

 

Nifty Trend Deciding Level:4995

Nifty Resistance:5100,51705220

Nifty Support:4941,4874,4827

 

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14 thoughts on “Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis for Expiry Week

  1. Priya

    Hello Sir.,

    Nifty levels r Extremely Wonderful…… I hav an Request Please Send the Levels of Bank Nifty Also…….

    Regards.,
    Priya.

  2. Vivek

    Sir,

    Your FII SAR levels acts as trand lines for us.. Could you pls help us by giving those if not in the morning atleast by afternoon.

    Also if your articles can be segregated then it would be easily readable..

    thx
    Vivek

  3. Bramesh Post author

    Dear Sir,

    Thanks a lot!!
    Due to time constraints and i have my trading course classes on weekend it would be near to impossible for me to do the analysis over weekend.

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  4. Bramesh Post author

    Hi Sir,

    Thanks a lot !!

    I Cover the same in my trading course. You can join the same to understand the gap theory.

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  5. Bramesh Post author

    Dear Sir,

    You can get the data from amibroker and Kotak Software also provides the same.

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  6. Bramesh Post author

    Hi Sir,

    Thanks a lot. Can you please explain me wht exactly you are requesting for.. I was unable to understand your point.

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  7. lancy pinto

    Bramesh,
    Thank you once again for indepth information you provide us daily on intraday days.As usual I say KEEP IT UP.
    One request,is it not possible to have one window under Bramesh’s Tech rather than having 2 or 3 windows opened.

  8. Vikas

    Hi Bramesh,

    i am reading you article from few weeks. i am working with repurted MNC Broking Company. Please provide me a data of 10 years which you mentioned on top in year and monthly…please…

  9. Manish seth

    Hi Bramesh.

    My thanks and wishes for your excellent presentation for the weekly trade analysis.

    Wanted to learn how the Gaps would be trade opportunities.
    Pl specify.

  10. ABI

    VERY INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH PAIN YOU HAVE TAKEN TO ADVICE INVESTORS

  11. Chandra Mohan Gupta

    Dear Bramesh,

    Extremely thankful to you for such a detailed weekly technical outlook.

    However once again we could not get the FII F&O analysis of FRIDAY (20.1.2012) TRADE to trade on NEXT MONDAY (23.1.2012). Also we could not get the FII SER level and BUY & SELL levels with targets for Monday, 23.1.2012.

    Shall appreciate, if you also take a bit pain to publish the same in the interest of your followers.

    Thanks and regards

    CM Gupta

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