Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 18-Jan-11.
1. FII sold 15129 Contracts in NF worth 350 Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest increasing by 687 contracts.
2. As Nifty Future was down by 20 points and OI has increased today, with fall in price so FII have booked profit in Index futures.But still no sign of shorting the index are visible.
3. Today was an expected to be a day of consolidation after a rise of 86 points yesterday and trading was dull in most part of the day with no major moves coming. But consolidation BULLS were winner as they were able to defend the 100 SMA@4831.
4. NF total OI was at 2.1 cores with 14 Lakh liquidation in OI,Profit booking was seen by retailers/HNI and DII.
5.FII OI 552296 is highest in series till date.Any bad news or close below 4900 can see a liquidation of longs in panic.
6. On 30 Dec NF Closed at 4634 and today it closed at 4957 a move on 323 points FII OI has increased by 1.51 Lakh contract in past 14 trading sessions which signify they held good amount of longs in system.
7. In Equity cash segment FII bought 875 cores whereas DII sold whopping 590 cores. FII have bought 4293 cores in past 14 days while DII have sold 2705 contracts so remaining 1587 cores have been bought by retailers and HNI. The reason are quiet visible with small and mid caps outperforming Nifty. Again a reason for me to say its a bear market rally.
8. As per Options data 5000 CE has OI of 66 lakhs with liquidation of 3 lakh so now this give me sense of underlying bullish strength of marketand 4700 PE has highest OI of 78 Lakhs.
9. 5100 CE has seen the highest OI of 74 lakhs now the bears are moving to higher range as 5000 was having the highest OI till yesterday now today so 5000 can be broken yesterday looking at EOD OI.
10 .4900 PE saw a Huge addition of another 5 lakhs in OI so 32 lakhs in 2 trading sessions.Sp 4900 looks an immediate base of Nifty in short term
11. FII SAR level comes at 4912 and Nifty ATP for Dec series comes at 4805. FII SAR for yesterday was 4933 and todays low of NF was 4933 so FII SAR is working for us.
12. Bulls need to close above 4976 level tomorrow as it being 78.6% retracement of 4532-5100.
Buy above 4982 Tgt 5005,5024 and 5050
Sell below 4955 Tgt 4931,4905 and 4869
All levels mentioned are SPOT levels.
Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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