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Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 25-Jan-12.
1. FII sold 887 Contracts in NF worth 14.64 Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest decreasing by 273257 contracts.
2. Yesterday was Expiry and FII have rollovered there longs to next series with Huge Decrease in OI worth 273257 contracts.
3. The February series started off with an open interest of Rs27,499 crore in stock futures, Rs12,914 crore in Nifty futures, Rs45,111 crore in index options and Rs2,078 crore in stock options.
4. NF total Feb OI is at 2.33 cores with 36 Lakh addition in OI,Jan series saw a decrease of 39 lakhs in OI so as such 36 lakhs got rollovered and 3 lakhs got liquidated.
5. Rollovers provide good visibility of Next series Now look at Feb series rollover of NF. Today Feb Series OI is 2.33 Cores. On 20 Jan it was 1.2 Cores so in 5 trading session an addition of 1.1 Cores.
Now lets do some data analysis
On 20 Jan Nifty closed at NF Feb 5077 and yesterday NF Feb closes at 5181 so a 1.1 Cores addition is range of 5077 to 5181.So 100 Points range remain crucial,So a close below 5077 will be the first sign of weakness in Nifty for Feb series. Keep a note of this level.
Below 5077 4995 will be the major level to watch as per Open Interest data
Still no short signal have emerged for Nifty.
6. Overbought can remain overbought for prolonged period of time,Current Uptrend is the example every trader should keep in mind. Higher time frame will always take preference. As we are approaching Monthly closing Month time frame should be kept in mind.Close above 5272 will put Monthly Technical on uptrend and close below 5025 will keep monthly in SELL.
7. In Equity cash segment FII bought 1147 cores whereas DII sold 712 cores.FII have been bought 7628 cores in Cash market alone in January month till date.
7. As per Options data 5200 CE has OI of 43 lakhs and 5000 PE is having Oi of 40 lakhs.So 5000-5200 remains the range.
8. 5206 is 200 SMA for Nifty and close above it will lead to higher moves. FII have been buying in cash so this rally is more based on cash buying but DII selling is cause of concern, So keep a close watch on 5230 levels
9. FII SAR level comes at 5159 and Nifty ATP 5152..
Buy above 5176 Tgt 5206,5230 and 5250
Sell below 5152 Tgt 5134,5110,5090
All levels mentioned are SPOT levels.
Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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