FII F&O Data analysis for 27 Dec trade in Nifty future

By | December 26, 2011

Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 26 Dec.

 

1. FII bought  12,404  Contracts in NF worth 272  Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest increasing  by 4984 contracts.

2. As NF  was  up  by 68  points  with Open Interest increase by  FII . Rise in OI with Rise  in price means  longs were created by FII .

3. Net Exposure of FII for the December Series is 42,958  contracts which i am assuming are longs. Now this figure will be shocker to hard core bears as doomsday Sayers were predicting a fall till 4300,4100 in Nifty Future in Dec Month.

4. Today rise  was on  volumes 2.75 Lakh NF contract which is the lowest traded value for December series, so today can be categorized as uneventful,boring day as after the initial rise in morning nifty was almost grinding in 20 point range throughout the day.

5. The reason for such tight range of 10 points can be answered if one sees the FII Option Open Interest which is at 20 Lakh contract,FII have shorted puts heavily from 16 Dec the day we broke the scared 4630. The day was having high volatility and bearish environment and they want to use the time decay to eat option premium such days are used by FII to write option.

FII has sold options worth 1630 cores on 16 dec and if one sees NF close from 16 Dec ie. 4752  till  26 Dec ie. 4787 we moved just 35 points but Options Premium of 4700 PE has comes down from 150 to Rs 17 ie almost whole premium is eaten by the writers.

So now i hope the reason is clear why we are having such rangebound moves.

6. Once FII covers the whole Options we would move out of this trading zone and will again start the trending moves.

7. NF total OI was at 1.5 cores with 11.44 lakh reduction means  traders who took short  bet  on weekend  and today morning session on anticipation of a continuation of decline in market and have just liquidated there bets.

8. Rollovers have started and today we saw a 12 Lakh addition in OI in Jan Series means the whole OI reduction of Dec series got rollovered  to Jan series.I am assuming these are longs as we have seen an addition of additional 1 lakh in Jan series with price rising it should be longs only.

9. In Equity cash segment FII bought  113 cores  whereas DII sold   119 cores.

7. As per Options data  4900 CE has highest OI of 75  lakhs addition of 3.3 lakh and 4500 PE has highest OI of 72 Lakhs covering  of 81k. So 4500 becomes support and 4900 becomes resistance.

Highest OI in 4900 CE will be real test of Bulls as Maximum Shorts in December series are in range of 4750-4910 and today we have closed above the crucial 4756 level which means shorts are in pain as of today. Now Bears do not want Nifty to move above 4900 coz as and when it happens it will lead to full fledged short covering in NF and i will not be surprised to see an expiry above 5000.

8. 4400 PE  saw a liquidation of   10  lakh in OI today as FII have started covering there shorts in Puts at various strike price.

9. Addition in OI was seen in 4700-4800 PE with 4800 PE adding whopping 15 lakhs in OI, So traders are getting confident 4800 will  get breached tomorrow .

10. Interestingly 4800 CE also added 5.5  lakh in OI, so real fight for 4800 will start tomorrow .4810-4830 has been an important resistance for December series.

10. FII SAR level  comes at 4717,It increased dramatically from Friday’s SAR of 4643 which gives me confidence FII were buyers today in NF.

11. Average Traded Price for NF is 4816  for December series which becomes the potential resistance for further upmove to add to it its 50% retracement level from high of 5099 to low of 4631.

12.  Nifty  closed above 4756 and  positional shorts should not be carried forward.

13. On Upside above above 4796 Nifty Tgt 4813,4831 and 4874.

14. On dowside below 4755 Nifty Tgt 4738 ,4718 and 4692 (Nifty Spot Level)

 

Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl

 

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9 thoughts on “FII F&O Data analysis for 27 Dec trade in Nifty future

  1. Bramesh Post author

    Dear Sir,
    The data is from nseindia.com
    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  2. Bramesh Post author

    Dear Sir,

    Thanks for your appreciation.

    You can join my trading course in which i cover the trading strategies to trade in Nifty.
    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  3. Pankit

    sir i am following your blog from some time and find it very use full. i am in the market from 2 years & now i want to learn from you how to trade in nifty with the help of FII & open interest.plz help me

  4. Bramesh Post author

    Thanks Sir

    Your analysis is perfect sir..

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  5. Bramesh Post author

    Dear Akshay,

    FII Derivative statics which NSE provides consists of Nifty futures data only.

    Rgds,
    Bramesh

  6. VAIBHAV

    excellent analysis– as usual — a small query — if FII options activity for dec 2011 series – is carefully scrutinised –kindly note — FII were huge sellers of options 0n 8 th as well as 9 th dec — and on 16 th dec too — 1400 crs + sold as u ve stated — probably on 8 th and 9th dec — they ve sold index calls ? mostly 500 CE, 4900 CE– and on 16th dec — probably sold puts — ?4600PE , 4500-4400 PE – and realy ate huge premiums — pls comment — your expert opinion is awauted — rgds — vaibhav

  7. Akshay

    Dear Bramesh

    How do u arrived at FIIs bought 12404 NF contracts? today.
    The above table indicates INDEX futures it means NF BNF cnx IT etc
    Can you Explain it?

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