Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 14 Dec.
1. FII sold 13409 Contracts in NF worth 311 Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest increasing by 32527 contracts.
2. As NF was down by 48 points with Open Interest increase by FII . Rise in OI with fall in price means shorts were taken.
3. An interesting observation today we had bad inflation data market tanked from 4848 and immediately recovered but again unable to sustain highs and tanked again we have so much bearishness all around and Nifty has all the reason to correct still buying in coming at lower levels. Will make do the least obvious in coming 2 days ie. a sharp and swift rally to surprise all bears.
4. NF total OI was at 2.05 cores with 5 lakh addition means shorts got created from retails and HNI also.
5. INR kept on with its bull run and made a new high of 53.8. Things looks overdone here and i accept a brief pullback
6. In Equity cash segment FII sold 140 cores whereas DII were buyers of 449 cores as rupee hits new all time low.From Past 4 days DII 1200 cores if one observe closely DII generally buy near the bottom of cycle so this also support my stance of market can see a rally in extremely short term.
7. As per Options data 5100 CE has highest OI of 89 lakhs and 4700 PE has highest OI of 91 Lakhs. With such a high OI at 4700 PE so we are having a rangebound trade in range of 4700-5100. Now such high OI strikes are quiet difficult to break in first instance so either we require a very bad global event playing out or we are headed for sub 5100 range.
8. One more interesting observation is Dec end is quarter ending for Mutual funds and hedge funds bonus time for them so most likely they would like to ramp up the NAV’s of there funds to carry home good bonus which again add to my view of some relief rally.
9. 4800-4900 CE added 21 Lakhs in OI Will Market scare the confident bears ? Till Nifty closes above 4756 bulls have still hope left, below it all bullish bias goes for a toss.
10. 4300 PE saw an addition of 9 lakh in OI so either its smart money who is betting on break of 4700 or they have wrote the call to eat 10 rs premium?
11. Euro made a new low of 1.29 today and Europe and Dow are in red as i write this but again these are not breaking up with so much bearishness around so some smart guys are accumulating at bottom or markets are waiting for a trigger like downgrade on France .
12. FII SAR level comes at 4674,Keep an eye on this level tomorrow.
13. Close below 4756 this week will lead to fall till 4640 and 4536 .
14. Today after 5 trading days Nifty has formed higher high and higher low on daily charts which signify a pause in down trend .
15. On Upside above above 4840 Nifty can move towards 4868 and 4883. 4900 looks a difficult resistance to get broken
Have a proper risk management system and never be heroic in market thinking that Nifty will bounce. Try to trade on levels with discipline,Trade when level come with patience and maintain sl as markets are quiet volatile these days.
Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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