Below is my Interpretation of FII OI data Sheet for 13 Dec.
1. FII sold 22198 Contracts in NF worth 507 Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest decreasing by 2130 contracts.
2. FII avg buy was at 4704 and avg sell was at 4672 whih was below todays range of 4731-4840 NF means they played intra trades only.
3. As NF was up by 63 points with Open Interest reduction by FII . Fall in OI with Rise in price means shorts got covered on intraday basis.
4. NF total OI was at 1.99 cores with 8 lakh reduction means shorts got covered from retails and HNI also.
5. For December Series FII have squared off there longs and now fresh shorts were added today tune of 42K Contracts.
6. NF has fallen from the high of 5100 to low of 4729 in matter of 4 days means a fall of 361 points, which shows the intensity and gravitation of fall is fast and furious.We have discussed the possibility of intra day rise today in FaceBook page and same got materialized in dying hours of trade. (You can LIKE the page so that you get timely updates).
7. INR hit the all time low of 53.6 which is not good for Indian Economy and Crude also rose today by 3% as Iran has some unconfirmed news of Iran Closes Straits Of Hormuz, Oil Explodes
8. In Equity cash segment FII sold 560 cores whereas DII were buyers of 481 cores as rupee hits new all time low.
9. As per Options data 5100 CE has highest OI of 86 lakhs and 4700 PE has highest OI of 86 Lakhs. With such a high OI at 4700 PE i do not accept to get it broken at first we should bounce from 4700 and eventual fall after we had hourly charts move out of oversold zone. This is what i have recommended yesterday with today’s market action the same observation helped a lot.
10. 4700 PE again saw an addition of 2 lakhs so it has become a strong base for bulls to protect as below this level 4500 PE has highest OI so below 4700 fall will be fast and furious.
11. Euro is trading at 11 Months low at 131 we have US Fed announcement FOMC mins and Infaltion Data tomorrow so interesting and volatile day ahead.
12. FII SAR level comes at 4715,Keep an eye on this level tomorrow.
13. Close below 4756 tomorrow will lead to fall till 4640 and 4536 in this week only.
14. Till the formation of lower lows is seen on daily charts No positional longs should be taken.Today we have seen double bottom formation at 4733 NF and this led to rally in last 30 mins. Break of 4733 will lead to eventaul breakdown of 4700.
15. On Upside above 4813 Nifty can move towards 4855 and 4883. 4900 looks a difficult resistance to get broken
Have a proper risk management system and never be heroic in market thinking that Nifty will bounce. Try to trade on levels with discipline,Trade when level come with patience and maintain sl as markets are quiet volatile these days.
Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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