I am Looking at FII OI data Sheet for 21Nov, I have made the following Interpretation.
Let me go by Disclaimer these Observation should not be used as Trade recommendation in NF
1. FII bought 7105 Contracts in NF worth 169 Cores in Index Futures with Open Interest Increasing by 57929 contracts.
FII covered 7 shorts in NF in september series and Rollover 57K contract to December series.
Fall In Price with rise in Open Interest means FII has added shorts in Future and there total shorts in November series are in tune of 1.27 Lakh.
2. In Equity cash segment they sold only 743 cores as Rupee Touched 52 whereas DII were buyers in tune of 595 cores. DII generally buys at bottom on cycle as seen from
past data. Will they be right this time?
3. I have mentioned in my morning update5 on FaceBook 4865 in Nov Series and 4895 in Dec Series NF we had a highest volume Nifty never touched 4865 after 2 PM where from past 6 trading days move starts on downside.
4. As per Options data 4700 PE has highest OI of 58 lakhs that to in last week of expiry, NO PE has OI higher than 80 lakh which means no base formation is not in sight yet.
5. We have been falling from 5326 to 4766 with FII OI highest today in series so if global markets did not improve than the sacrosanct low of 4720 will be taken back in the series.
6. FII bought 298 cores in Stock Futures means they have started covering there shorts in Stock futures
7. NF short rollover are happening today also 10 Lakhs were rollover ed so we had almost 60 Lakhs shorts rollover till today.
8. It has been 9 days we have been falling and INR has reached 32 month low of 51.87, If RBI do not intervene now we are in for a large scale dollar buying from FII. RBI can do that by cutting interest rates because a 10% rise is INR will automatically fuel inflation by 1%
Looking at above data sheet we need to look for 4758 tomorrow break below it and close below 4720 will lead another round of fall till 4675 but holding 4720 we can see a decent bounce till 4900 as its was last hourly high today.
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