Nifty Views on RBI Policy

By | September 16, 2011

The D day has arrived RBI deciding the fate of Nifty. Why i say so is Every time move by RBI will lead to trending moves in our market. Last Meeting when RBI raised the Interest Rates by 50 BPS Nifty was at 5700 Levels near its 200 DMA. After that Nifty is trading now at 5100 Levels so a fall of 600 points from previous Rate Hike.

What to except today ?

RBI has only 1 thing in MIND To Tame BEAST Inflation. It can keep on raising interest rates till it can get inflation controlled.

Today 3 Scenarios are possible

1. Raise by 25 BPS most anticipated — 70% Market participants accept this but the focus will be on language used ie. Either they are hawkish or dovish on further Interest rate hike.

2. No Hike Looking at Global Scare we are going through NO HIKE as global economy is slowed But prices of commodities have not fallen.

3. Raise by 50 BPS — As Inflation is at 2 Years High another 50 BPS to lead to demand destruction and reducing the purchasing power of Individuals.As the Western economies are again flooded by Dollar Liquidity funds Yesterday Night decision by ECB it can again lead to Rise in commodity prices and Inflation can go up by  leaps and Bounds

Nifty Hourly

AS we have discussed before charts discounts everything,the thing is are you able to read the message and trade accordingly.

Now as per Hourly charts Nifty is going for a Breakout above 5120 for swing high of 5169.

Breaking of  Swing high 5169 will lead to 5230. on the Flip side 5050 on downside if broken will again lead us back to revisit of 5050, 4965 and 4912 levels.

 

Nifty Daily

RBI moves will lead to a one sided move in market in coming 5 trading sessions. So on which side market moves today after RBI decision that trend will continue for next 5 days, It is an observation.

Now we are at crucial juncture in Daily charts 5120,5150 and 5169 are three important levels to be watched  for upside on daily charts.

On Downside levels are 5050,5005,4965 levels .

 

Nifty Weekly

Today is weekly close and its important that we need to close above 5169 which is go with the view of Higher Highs formation which can leave room for more upsides.Voaltality has been quiet high and market giving ranging moves between 4920-5159 levels. RBI decision will  get us out of this range.

 

Nifty Fibo

On Fibo Charts level of 5120 is only remaining to be crossed above which once 5169 is crossed we will go till 5300 levels. The gap between 5220-5230 needs to be filled and most likely it should be Filled if and only if RBI gives a surprise  to market.

Levels are our best friends and Lets always Stick them to Trade the market Rest all are Observation

Buy above 5120 Tgt 5150, 5169,5196 and 5230

Sell below 5072 Tgt 5051,5026,4998,4967 ,4950 and 4912

Levels Mentioned are SPOT Levels.

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