Nifty Knocking the Doors of Bear Market

Nifty Weekly Chart

Nifty Weekly Chart shows the breach of the bullish channel we were trading in from past 1-1.5 years and it has been breached for some 2 times before but after a quick whipsaw was back in channel again.Will it be 3 time lucky?

VIX Chart

VIX the fear factor is on its upper trendline again and it is in not able to breach this @24.3 than it will reverse and the Stock market will go up.Stock Market and VIX have inverse relationship,means when VIX goes up market will come down and vice versa.

Nifty Daily Chart

Nifty daily chart is shown above .We broke the previous low of 5690 and have closed at 5651 levels now next support comes at 5606 which is 200 DMA and if indicies are unable to hold this than for this week we will be technically entering into a bear market.

Markets are oversold on Daily and Hourly charts with positive divergences on RSI and MACD.

FII have sold only 4000 cores which is peanuts for the buying they have done 29k cores and if the real selling starts which are in for a depper trouble.

Reversal from such oversold zone will be quick and furious and i would suggest all trades do not short this market now as we will soon see a reversal just wait on sidelines and wait for reversal to come.

Nifty Support at 5606 (200 day DMA) and 5550 (Aug ‘10 top).

Resistance@ 5,820, short term (20DMA, 50 DMA and 100DMA) moving averages placed at 5,966, 5,984 and 5,948 levels